动态健康冲击下的中老年家庭金融风险评估

财经研究 2022 年 第 48 卷第 02 期, 页码：153 - 168  DOI:10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20210813.201

摘要

尽管健康冲击对家庭金融风险具有显著影响，但现有研究在健康类型、影响程度以及影响机制等方面还存在不同结论。文章基于家庭资产负债表，构建包含财务边际和偿付能力在内的家庭金融脆弱性指标来衡量家庭金融风险，并分析了四种健康冲击对中老年家庭金融脆弱性的影响及传导机制。研究发现：我国中老年家庭金融脆弱性上升趋势明显，而健康冲击进一步加大了中老年家庭金融脆弱性，尤其是中等收入家庭和农村家庭，但不同种类健康冲击对中老年家庭金融脆弱性的影响程度具有显著异质性。其中，重大疾病对中老年家庭金融脆弱性的影响程度是其他健康冲击的4倍。上述效应的传导机制是，健康冲击通过降低家庭收入或增加家庭支出显著提高了中老年家庭金融风险。但不同健康冲击的影响机制存在差异，一般健康冲击主要通过支出增加提高中老年家庭金融风险，而重大疾病通过支出增加和收入减少共同提高中老年家庭金融风险，表明中老年家庭应重点防范重大疾病引发的金融风险。进一步讨论发现，社会医疗保险对提高家庭应对健康风险冲击的作用有限，而商业健康保险可以显著提高家庭偿付能力，弥补社会医疗保险的不足部分，尤其是重大疾病风险。因此，我国应加大税优型商业健康险的优惠力度，放宽健康险的年龄界限，提高家庭商业医疗险的持有量，强化中老年家庭对健康风险冲击的应对能力，进而降低中老年家庭的金融脆弱水平。

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引用本文

张冀, 史晓, 曹杨. 动态健康冲击下的中老年家庭金融风险评估[J]. 财经研究, 2022, 48(2): 153-168. 

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